World Cup Quarter-Final Preview: Pakistan v West Indies @ Mirpur
23rd March 2011
The Scene
Pakistan come into this match on a high after topping Group A, having ended Australia’s 34-match winning streak in World Cup matches. As usual, they have been inconsistent – sandwiched between beating Sri Lanka and Australia was a shocking performance against New Zealand, and an unconvincing victory over Canada. They have problems at the top of the order, and remain a far better side defending a score than chasing one. They will fancy their chances of defeating the West Indies, who have collapsed to spin three times in this competition and remain reliant on individual performances.
The West Indies have not beaten one of the World’s ‘elite’ eight sides since July 2009, and despite the usual clichés from their camp, you have to wonder how much confidence they have in their ability to beat a Pakistan side if the play anywhere near their potential.
The Conditions
On the evidence of the tournament so far, the Mipur pitch is pretty good to bat on unless you are Bangladesh, who somehow managed to make it look like minefield on two occasions. The forecast is for typically warm and humid weather, meaning there is likely to be some dew around in the second innings, but nowhere near as much as Ravi Shastri and his buddies would have you believe. Both teams should be looking to bat first if they win the toss.
Will Darren Sammy be tasting his wife’s world-famous honey after the game?
The Tactics
The West Indies will look to go hard up front and at the death, although Chanderpaul’s experience if recalled will be key against spin in the middle overs. If Pakistan play two off-spinners, expect the likes of Sammy, Russell and Thomas to be promoted in order to counter-attack and protect the left handers. Roach, Russell and Rampaul need to strike early to get Younis Khan and Misbah in early. The men from the Caribbean have been surprisingly excellent in the field so far, arguably the best fielding unit in the tournament.
We should not underestimate how important it is for Pakistan to bat first. Pakistan will take a more cautious approach, looking to build an innings and accelerate in the final overs. Razzaq’s form has warranted batting above Afridi for some time, however I can’t see Afridi demoting himself. Umar Gul was finally given the new ball against Australia and his battle will Gayle will be fascinating viewing. Mohammed Hafeez is a criminally underrated bowler, he has excellent control of line and length in addition to beautiful, deceptive changes in pace and flight. He should be used early on against Gayle, Smith and Bravo.
The Players
Kemar Roach – Roach has been outstanding in the competition so far, consistently striking with both old and new ball. Pakistan’s top order is vulnerable and if Roach can make early breakthroughs then the West Indies can apply pressure to Pakistan’s middle order.
Kamran Akmal – Don’t all spit out your cornflakes; the reason I chose Akmal senior as the key man is due to his incompetence as opposed to his ability. If he takes all the chances that his world-class bowling attack will create, Pakistan will be in the semi-finals.
The West Indies have numerous tricky selection decisions to get the balance of their side right; these problems are compounded by captain Darren Sammy’s lack of form. Gayle and Roach are fit to play. Chanderpaul is line to replace Sarwan. Sulieman Benn may be dropped to accommodate Rampaul and Bishoo.
Probable XI: Chris Gayle, Devon Smith, Darren Bravo, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Kieron Pollard, Devin Thomas (WK), Darren Sammy (C), Andre Russell, Ravi Rampaul, Davendra Bishoo, Kemar Roach.
Pakistan’s selections dilemmas are no way near as complicated as their opponents. The main dilemma for Afridi and Waqar is whether they prefer the off-spin of Ajmal to the slow left-arm orthodox of Rehman, as the West Indies are likely to field a top four of left-handers. The variety that Wahab ‘The Jacket’ Riaz brings to the attack is likely to see him retained over the experience of Shoaib Akhtar.
On that note, let it be known that having announced his retirement, by dropping two sitters off Ross Taylor, Kamran Akmal has officially ended Shoaib Akhtar’s career.
Probable XI: Mohammad Hafeez, Kamran Akmal (WK), Asad Shafiq, Younis Khan, Misbah-Ul-Haq, Umar Akmal, Shahid Afridi (C), Abdul Razzaq, Umar Gul, Wahab Riaz, Saeed Ajmal
The History
The West Indies have won six of the previous eight World Cup meetings between the two sides. The most memorable encounter between these two came in Lahore in 1987. Imran Khan’s four wickets restricted the West Indies to 216. At 110 for 5, the Pakistani chase was wilting, before 56 from 49 balls from wicket-keeper Saleem Yousuf set up a nail-biting finish. Abdul Qadir took 14 from Courtney Walsh’s last over, as Pakistan won by one wicket, off the last ball.
Ravi Shastri Says…
“This Bangladeshi crowd is really excited to see Pakistan and the West Indies face off today.”
The Prediction
It is hard to assess who possesses the greater threat to Pakistan in this game, themselves or the handful of match winners the West Indies have at their disposal. The West Indies have had enormous problems against spin in the middle overs during the competition, collapsing to South Africa, England and India. It will not get any easier against Pakistan’s spin trio. Unusually Pakistan go into this game as the side least likely to collapse and beat themselves. Expect Pakistan to be too strong over the course of a 100 overs but not without the odd hiccup along the way.
about the author…Ian Durrant is 23 [named after Botham, but don’t hold it against him], a politics and economics graduate from Loughborough University, who gambles on cricket for a living. You can follow him on Twitter @thenugget111.